Fork In Politics
2017: Episode 9:
Dear Remoaner: Here is the data, now kindly shut up
I see some remainers on Twitter who are absolutely convinced that the majority of people in this country oppose Brexit. These people are a bit stupid, so I thought I would make this video.
In January 2015 Remain was ahead by 1 point, but by November 2015 Remain was actually ahead by 2 points. 56% thought that Britain would be taking a risk if the UK were to leave the EU, that figure was down from 64% in June 2015. 39% thought leaving would be bad for jobs, with 17% saying it would be good for jobs. It is interesting that the analysis by YouGov concluded that the UK could vote to leave, despite that the polls said remain would win.
UKIP has always been the party of the small business owners in the UK, which is the January 2016 YouGov poll was good news for us. It showed that the SME business owners were more eurosceptic than big business. 42% were in favour of Leave with 47% in favour of Remain. Big Business was shown to be 93% in favour of Remain and just 3% in favour of Leave. Interestingly, whilst the SMEs saw Remain as the best for both their businesses and the economy, they actually said that leaving (48%) would be best for society as a whole, with 44% saying remain.
As if psychic, in February YouGov also predicted that Leave would benefit from the fact that older people favoured Leave and were more likely to vote than younger people, which is precisely what happened. YouGov said as follows:
" Under-estimating the effect of the age-skew in turnout is thought to be a large part of why pollsters got the last general election wrong. Because there were too many politically engaged young people in the survey samples, and young people are more left-leaning, pollsters’ models were built on the expectation that more of them would vote than actually did.
Although we’ll never know precisely how the different generations voted in 2015, best estimates suggest that around 43% of 18-24 year olds voted compared to around 78% of over 65s. With 6m 18-24 year olds in the UK and over 11 million over 65s that means that the over 65s carry more than three and a half times more weight than the youngest cohort."
I suspect that these facts, taking account of both the 2015 General Election plus Referendum led to Labour specifically targeting younger voters and explaining to them absolute importance of actually going out and voting. That is why Labour MPs in University cities saw such huge numbers voting - it certainly shocked a lot of people including me. Labour got them to get out and vote and Labour absolutely benefited from this.
By April 2016, when the campaigns were well under way, Leave was one point ahead. What surprised me about this poll was, hidden away in the detailed analysis, UKIP was actually at 20% in Westminster Voting Intentions. I knew we had a surge at that time, which makes what happened after it all the harder to understand (Nigel Farage resigned and UKIP has been substantially down in the polls since, bearing in mind as at 28 October 2017 we rarely get more than 3 or 4% in polls, we had 20% back then).
The YouGov poll following Obama's visit was very interesting. Obama had huge support amongst the British electorate, with 72% saying he'd done a good job as president and 16% saying he'd done a bad job. Pretty impressive numbers. However, the same poll found people were not so happy with him butting into the EU Vote issue. He did a speech in the UK and said that the UK would be at the back of the queue for a trade deal with the US if we left the EU. 53% thought his comments on the EU Referendum were inappropriate and 35% thought they were appropriate. I remember talking to people on the streets, who said we must remain because of what Obama said. I reminded them that Obama would be president for seven months after the vote, so actually what Trump or Clinton thought was more important.
As you know, we did vote to leave the EU.
Most pollsters got it wrong. YouGov admitting that it was four points out in its final analysis issued the night before the poll. YouGov found that in Leave areas there was unexpectedly high turnout and, unusually again, the North significantly outvoted the South in numbers of people who turned out. I think I was about the only one amongst my party group at the Count in Manchester who actually believed we would win that night. I had one colleague who said he would strip off and walk down the street naked if Leave won, so certain was he that we would be piped at the post. Nigel Farage said he thought Leave had lost, before changing his mind to say we had probably won. Fortunately he redeemed himself with two very amazing speeches - one late at night and one first thing in the morning. They were brilliant.
So we move across time and come to 2017. By March 52% to 22% people think Leaving the EU would be good for Britain, 61% they think it would respect the result of the referendum and by 49% to 25% people would be pleased at such an outcome. 45% thought we should just go ahead with leaving the EU with no further vote in Parliament or a referendum, 27% wanted a second referendum and 15% wanted a vote in Parliament. If negotiations failed and there was no deal with the EU 31% said Theresa May should try negotiations again, 32% said we should just leave the EU with no deal and just 19% said we should abandon Brexit altogether. More interestingly, the poll found that if Parliament rejected a deal with the EU in a vote 48% said we should leave the EU with no deal and just 31% said we should abandon Brexit.
On 29 March 2017 YouGov asked people whether they regretted voting Leave. The left leaning media no doubt hated the response, but I would suggest the BBC should be forced to answer why, in the face of this poll, they continue to push the Remain side of things. More people who voted to Remain take the view that the government has a duty to follow the result and leave the EU than think they should try to reverse it. This means that overall the public think Brexit should go ahead by 69% to 21%. That was broken down as 44% voted Leave and Support Leave, 25% voted Remain but Support Leaving and just 21% voted remain and want Brexit over-turned. Remainers are in a substantial minority. 48% said they were confident of Theresa May and 39% were not. 24% thought a trade deal with the EU was more important than immigration, 16% thought immigration was more important than free trade with the EU and 44% thought that a deal could be done where we get immigration control of EU citizens and a trade deal. 45% thought that there should not be a second referendum, 27% thought there should and 15% thought Parliament should vote on the trade deal. 55% thought the UK should be prepared to walk away without a deal and 24% thought we should not be prepared to walk away.
On 12 May 2017 the best YouGov poll came out. It found that 45% of people were Leavers and 23% were re-leavers - people that had voted remain but now supported Leave. Just 22% supported remain and/or abandoning Brexit in one way or another. YouGov said:
"This means that the Conservatives and UKIP are fishing among 68% of voters with Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and nationalists scrapping for just 22% of voters. In this three way split, the fight for votes takes on a slightly different form. Amongst Hard Remainers, the Conservatives receive just 10% of the vote and are behind both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Among Hard Leavers the situation is reversed, with over seven in ten (71%) planning on voting Conservative. When it comes to the Re-Leavers, the Tories secure 45% of the vote and have a 10% lead over Labour.
This suggests that people’s voting intentions aren’t being driven merely by the binary choice they faced in last year’s referendum. Instead, the choice is being informed by how they now feel the country should proceed with leaving the EU and it seems to be having a real influence on how the parties are performing in the polls."
In the 7 June 2017 poll outcome, people stated that their most important national issues facing the country and the Prime Minister was Brexit, though it was viewed as less important locally to them.
Following the election YouGov did another poll to see people's view of Brexit given the Tories had lost their majority. Amazing findings. 70% thought that Brexit must happen, with just 21% opposing Brexit. The 70% was made up of 46% Leavers and 24% Re-Leavers.
So, again, the question has to be asked: Why does the BBC always put on more remain people than Leave people when the vast majority of the British Public support Brexit and Supports us leaving the EU?
It is interesting to note that 36% thought the outcome of the General Election would make a bad deal with the EU more likely. 43% thought we should continue in negotiations as we had been doing and 23% thought we should seek a softer exit strategy. 17% thought we should have a second referendum.
The 1 August 2017 poll was also a surprise. YouGov said this:
"Six in ten Leave voters and a third of Remain voters say significant damage to the economy would be a price worth paying to get their way on Brexit. New YouGov research reveals that large proportions of Leave and Remain voters are so committed to their beliefs on whether or not Britain should leave the EU that they believe significant harm befalling the UK economy, or even losing their jobs, would be a price worth paying in order to get their way on Brexit."
61% thought economic damage was a price worth paying and 39% thought losing their jobs would be a price worth paying. 19% of Remain voters thought economic damage would be worth it to teach Leavers a lesson. Thankfully 64% said they did not think it.
By 18 September 2017 the figures had moved slightly. 45% were hard leavers and 17% were re-leavers, with 27% being hard remainers. the LibDems had positioned itself as representing the 48% who voted remain in the referendum. The problem that the LibDems had is that there were only 27% in that camp now, everyone else had jumped on board the Leaver's boat. Of the 27% of hard remainers, 22% said they would never vote LibDem, 28% would not vote LibDem but potentially could in the future, 30% said they might consider voting LibDem and just 8% said they would definitely vote LibDem. How the hell does this party have MPs?
So here we are at the end of 2017 and we now see that UKIP has a new leader and it appears Theresa May is knackering up Brexit. Labour and the LibDems still want to position themselves as representing the 27%, whilst UKIP represents the 62%. If we had a second referendum tomorrow, we would win but wit substantially higher numbers. Theresa May has not control over her party and is a pitiful figure on the European stage. UKIP must capitalise on the numbers that come out with every single poll. We represent the majority, we just now need to convince the majority that we are a party that can be trusted in Parliament. We lose our 22 MEPs soon. In may 218 we will find out if we win or lose our Councillors. We must fight for MPs for representation of the significant numbers of people that support us. And to do this we have to stop the in-fighting, stop teh fighting with those that have gone off to join For Britain or that other one (John Rees-Evans new party) and we have to start being professional and offering people policies that makes sense.
Additionally, we have to force the BBC to face up to the fact that the majority of the British Public do not agree with their biased left wing journalists. It is astonishing that the vast majority of the British public support Brexit, yet the BBC has substantially more remoaners on their political shows than leavers. It is wrong, it is unfair and it shows the BBC are massively out of step with the public it is supposed to represent.
 YouGov 16 November 2015 "Analysis: Why the UK might end up voting for Brexit"
 YouGov 16 November 2015 detailed poll results
 YouGov 25 January 2016 "Small business owners more eurosceptic than big business"
 YouGov 25 January 2016 detailed poll analysis
 YouGov February 2016 " Analysis: Don’t get too comfortable – the Out campaign has turnout on their side"
 YouGov 26 April 2016 " Campaign Memo: It’s the economy versus immigration"
 YouGov 26 April 2016 detailed poll analysis
 YouGov 23 April 2016 " Public to Obama: we love you, but stay out of EU debate"
 Telegraph 23 June 2016 " Obama stands by 'back of the queue' Brexit warning - how the world reacted"
 YouGov 24 June 2016 " Unexpectedly high turnout in Leave areas pushed the campaign to victory"
 Independent 23 June 2016 " EU referendum: Nigel Farage says it 'looks like Remain will edge it' as polls close"
 YouGov 17 March 2017 " What if Brexit negotiations fail?"
 YouGov 17 March 2017 detailed analysis of Poll
 YouGov 29 March 2017 "Attitudes to Brexit: Everything we know so far"
 YouGov 12 May 2017 "Forget 52%. The rise of the “Re-Leavers” mean the pro-Brexit electorate is 68%"
 YouGov 7 June 2017 "The local vs the national: the NHS comes into conflict with Brexit in terms of voters’ priorities"
 YouGov 15 June 2017 "Majority favour pushing on with Brexit – but many are tempted by a softer path"
 YouGov 1 August 2017 The 'extremists' on both sides of the Brexit debate"
 YouGov 18 September 2017 "Why the Lib Dems couldn’t capitalise on Brexit at the election (and where they go from here)"
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