John Bickley

UKIP Parliamentary Candidate Oldham West & Royton

The campaign is now well under way.  Here are some things to think about if you are thinking of voting in the Oldham West & Royton campaign:

 

1.  Is this a test of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership?

 

Mr Corbyn has just been elected after that [forgotten his name] ex-leader was quite rightly jettisoned from the party.  So, this is thge first occassion that voters get to have their say on both the new leader (and his politics) and the failure of UKIP to get more than one MP despite having the same number of votes as the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru put together.

 

On Friday 20th November the London Evening Standard ran an article about how well Labour's leader was doing in the polls, as well as who is now hot favourite to lead the Tories when David Cameron runs off to the House of Lords.  It also included a poll as to what the public think of Mr Corbyn and his shadow chancellor [Go on, I dare you to be able to name who that is].  This is what it says[1]:

 

"However, there is one consolation for him — just 22 per cent think Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell would do a better job of running the economy."

 

So he is just into his first few months as leader and already he has a worse polling than Gordon Brown did when he became leader[2].

 

2. Public Opinion

 

I cannot find any polls as yet, and no hustings have happened, so I have to use that good old favourite - the betting office.  This is what BetFair has to say[3]:

 

"On the face of it, this is an extremely dull contest with an obvious winner. But, make no mistake, UKIP can win. The Betfair Oldham West & Royton market has Labour at 1.22 which is just way too short. UKIP are currently trading at 5.10 and that is tremendous value. The power of fear is a formidable one in elections and even more so in by-elections. UKIP are still the protest party of choice for many and protest parties win these types of contests."

 

Ladbrooks[3] have no commentary, just confirmation that Labour is 2/9 and UKIP is 3/5.  This is hotting up.  Conservatives are in at 100/1 - even I had better odds than that and no betting shop thought I could get anywhere near my Labour party opponent.  Betfauir has the Lib Dems at 1000/1 and Conservatives at 500/1.

 

 

So, that should tell you something.  It should tell you that you need to get down to Oldham and help them.  I had an abasolutely amazing time delivering leaflets.  There were activists from around the country.  I was out with a delightful guy called Oliver who was down from Edinburgh to help out.  Please, get in touch and offer any help you can.

 

Links

 

[1] London Evening Standard

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/mayor-and-may-overtake-osborne-in-tory-race-to-succeed-cameron-a3119676.html

 

[2] This is the YouGov polls for GB as prime minister.  He at least had the excuse that he had tanked the UK economy and had plunged the country into disaster - how the hell has Corbyn done that after a few months in charge?

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/leaders/brown

 

[3] BetFair:

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/uk-politics/oldham-west-royton-by-election-betting-odds-tips-3-december-2015-181115-136.html

 

[4] Ladbrooks

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/british/local-by-elections/oldham-west-royton-by-election/221137036/

 

 

 

 

 

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