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1.  GE2020: My Thoughts

25/10/2015: My thoughts about UKIP and our future having considered the last 18 months.

 

I thought I would start off the blog with a review of what we are going to be building towards in the 2020 General Election.  As you should appreciate, these are my thoughts and do not represent the thoughts of UKIP or my local branch.

 

I saw a really interesting YouGov poll in January.  It was a poll of 18 to  24 year olds[1].  It is interesting because it had Labour in the lead and the Green Party tied with the Conservative party.  It had UKIP at 13%.

 

YouGov Result                                    Actual Result[2]

UKIP       13%                                       12.6%

Lab          32%                                      30.4%

Con         22%                                       36.9%

Green      22%                                       3.6%

 

I said during the election period that I had expected the Green Party to really come into their own and gain a handful of seats.  It was painful to watch, but the dismal, and at times painful, offering by the party's leader (Natalie Bennet[3]) simply lost them the votes.  Everyone knew that the Lib Dems were a dead duck, simply for the fact that they took a giant dildo and screwed everyGreen Party YouGov to September 2014 single student and ex student that voted for them in 2010.  I therefore thought that the Green Party would pick up those votes.  When the Green party was made to look less attractive[4] those ex Lib Dem votes, I believe, were transferred to independent candidates and the Labour Party.  As you can see from the September 2014 YouGov[5], the Greens were surging.  I genuinely believed that GE2015 was really going to be an an amazing result for the Green Party.  Personally, I got to sit next to the Green Party Candidate for Stretford & Urmston and she was delightful; such a really nice lady.  She deserved much more than the 2.7% increase (to 4.7%)[6] increase in the vote share for S&U.  I even told her I thought that after the election she should challenge for the leadership of the party, so good were her hustings.  I will never forget that the Purple dot means the rich!

 

It would be rude of me not to include some of the very positive things said about Ms Bennett during the debates, so click HERE[7] for a really positive article.

 

So, what else do I think happened?  Well, we saw a changing of opinion in the country during the 2014 EU election, which frankly stunned everyone except Nigel Farage[8].  In the 2009 election the results were as follows (and the second column is the seats won in 2014).  The UK has a total of 72 seats in the EU[9].

 

Party      2009 %[Seats]                            2014 %[Seats]

Con         27.7% [26]                                  23.1%[19]

Lab         15.7% [13]                                   24.4% [20]

UKIP       16.5% [13]                                   26.6% [24]

 

UKIP won the election.  26.6% of the UK voted UKIP[10].  How?  I will tell you.  UKIP finally got people working for them that understood that the UK population saw them as a one policy party (well, actually, two policies).  Who-ever it was that they hired that made them understand this should definitely have gotten a bonus, because suddenly UKIP was talking entire policies.  People saw that they had a policy that was outside of the EU and immigration.  Prior to that the most we ever saw about UKIP was fruitcakes and loons.  And, the election saw that scum bucket Nick Griffin kicked out of the EU, his party[11] & [12] and politics generally.  I have no idea what he does now, but I hope he stays there and does not come back.  The 2015 election saw the BNP vote drop by 99.7%[13] and its membership was down to just 500.  It received just 1,667 votes in the entire election[14]. That is down from 563,743 in 2010[14].  I have no idea what he does, but the last article I can find about him has him at a Russian seminar telling the Russians that Europe's christians will be involved in a civil war and it will become an Islamic Caliphate[15].  What a wanker[16].

 

Please do have a look at my YouTube video about BNP people in the Labour Party: HERE[18].

 

 

So what else came out of the 2015 General Election?  I think the biggest thing I saw was the descent into absolute fascism by many Labour activists.  I think it is essential that there is genuine debate and rowdy arguments in politics - that's what gets people thinking about the whole argument rather than just a single issue or a summary view.  But the 2015 election just saw some absolutely disgusting behaviour by many activists.  I can honestly say that every single Labour [and all parties] activist in Stretford & Urmston was polite and cordial - that does not mean they did not challenge me - they did.  In other places I saw behaviour that I never thought I would ever see - the Labour Party members actively trying to dictate who is and who is not allowed to speak.  It was disgusting.  To pick a few.

 

In March Nigel Farage was out having a meal with his wife and children in a pub.  As such, he was not out campaigning, but having a brief piece of family time.  Labour scum burst in to the pub and frightened Farage's children.  How disgusting is that[19]?  he was having dinner with his family and these disgusting people barged in and went on the rampage.  I could understand if they tried doing this on the campaign trail - but when he is with his wife and children?  No, that is not on.

 

Labour Party activists stopped Nigel giving a talk in Edinburgh, led by a Labour Party activist[20].  They had done it in October 2014 in Rochdale[21]. And the Unions are still doing it[22].  But when the Labour Party had it done to them in Scotland, they cried foul[23].  There is something very wrong about trying your hardest to stop other parties being allowed to talk; this is what Stalin and Hitler did.  These people were not trying to protest UKIP, they were actively trying to suppress anything being said by UKIP.  The vile language used by the Union and Labour activists during the election was just disgusting.  I saw a local Labour Party group just spewing bile and hatred on twitter about a local UKIP candidate (and no, as I said, not S&U - my Labour opponent and her supporters were very polite).  I never thought I would see the day when Labour would be behind attempts to stifle democracy, but that is exactly what I saw in the ugly face of Labour in 2015.

 

What I could never understand from the election was how people could genuinely support Ed Miliband.  I personally thought he was probably the worst leader they have ever had.  I remember him, before he was elected and while Labour were in power, in news clips on the TV and I used to laugh that this petulant-teenager looking geek was actually related to David Miliband.  How could someone as handsome and statesman like like David Milliband ever have a brother that looked like that?  But, then came the leadership contest and the Unions stole the vote and forced this utterly undeserving character on Labour[24].  I genuinely cannot understand how they allowed him to stay as leader.  They got what they deserved.  I am adamant in my view that if David Milliband had been leader Labour would have absolutely walked away with the election.  But they did not - they screwed David and humiliated him, so he told the where they could go and he went to America.  The Labour Party genuinely deserves that, because it will be at least 2025 before they even have a hope of getting near office again, though some say even that is not possible[25].

 

I have never made any attempts to shy away from saying how much I loathed Ed Milliband.  It is rare for me to despise someone quite as much as I despised that man.  I blame Blair and Brown for the horrendous collapse of the economy in 2007/08, but I view them in a better light than I do Ed Milliband.  When David Milliband made a comment about the Labour Party leadership election and was told to shut up by the odious Lord Prescott[26] I just saw how far the Labour has to go before it ever has a chance of resurfacing.  Lord Prescott accepting a knighthood typifies for me what real labour is all about.

 

Number of Votes Per MP Elected 2015The other thing that came out of the GE2015 for me was just how powerful UKIP has become.  It was not just the 3,881,099 people that voted UKIP[27].  [Let me just say at this juncture - the total combined votes for  SNP,  Lib Dem and Plaid Cymru was 4,052,002[27] only 170,903 more than UKIP got on its own and they got a total number of 67[27] MPs compared to our one MP - shows quite how annoying the results were - I wouldn't mind but I gave a press interview at about 2am on the night/morning of the vote saying I did not think the system needed changing - so wish I had not said that!!].  No, I saw a sustained attack - that only happened because UKIP was an actual threat to Labour.  We are the third party[28].  It will take time for the party to shed the racism moniker, which is there partly because of some members being racists[29] and partly because it was the PR tactics of Labour until part way through the 2015 campaign.  No, what I have seen is the Labour Party switched part way through the campaign.  Any time a Labour Party person was interviewed they used the word "racist" any time they spoke of UKIP[30].  Then they realised that actually, immigration policy is not about racism, and it is something the public will vote for, so they adopted it as their policy[31].  Suddenly Labour candidates, but not activists, stopped using the word racist when referring to UKIP.  However, following their defeat and the 60% vote for Jeremy Corbyn, we are likely to see them back to  using that phrase.[32].  We have seen the Tories bring in numerous UKIP policies as their own, especially when dealing with tax and immigration.  That proves how powerful UKIP is now.

 

So, I think the future is definitely going to be interesting.  Jeremy Corbyn is a fantastic MP, but I do not think having a far left leader will see Labour getting the votes in.  I think when it comes to the 2020 election results we will see the Tories use some devastating tactics based upon fear - fear of Labour removing our nuclear deterrent, fear of Labour breaking the banks (again) and a fear that Labour will simply take us into a communist era of rule.  I predict that the EU referendum will do UKIP a real service and I expect the 2019 EU and 2020 General elections will see UKIP really close the numbers down on UKIP candidates being elected.  I actually look forward to it.  Look, for instance, at the London mayor race.  UKIP has put a gay candidate[33] forward, which flies in the face of the party as some homophobic hate machine.

 

 As always, views on this page are my own.  They do not represent the views of the Party, my local branch or my employer.

Kalvin Chapman

25/10/2015

 

 

 

 

Resources

 

[1] YouGov Poll 13th January 2015: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/01/13/greens-tied-conservatives-among-young-people/

[2] BBC Results: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results

[3] Green Party profile for Natalie Bennet: https://www.greenparty.org.uk/people/natalie-bennett.html

[4] http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/04/16/natalie-bennet-green-party-_n_7081964.html

[5]  YouGov Poll 6th September 2014: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/06/young-green-party-support-has-doubled-eu-election/

[6] Wikipedia entry for election results: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stretford_and_Urmston_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results

[7] Metro article looking at Twitter responses "Natalie Bennett ‘won’ the challengers’ debate, Nigel Farage ‘lost’, analysis finds" http://metro.co.uk/2015/04/16/twitter-has-spoken-natalie-bennett-won-the-challengers-debate-farage-lost-analysis-finds-5153960/

[8] Wikipedia results for 2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Results

[9] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apportionment_in_the_European_Parliament

[10] 26th May 2014 - Guardian article: "Ukip wins European elections with ease to set off political earthquake"

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-european-elections-political-earthquake

[11] October 2014 scum bag Nick Griffin loses his leadership position and he loses his membership of the nazi party.  I am sure people were up all night in tears.  Thanfully, this led to the total and utter collapse of the BNP.  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2777324/Former-BNP-leader-Nick-Griffin-expelled-far-right-group-claims-attempted-cause-disunity-party.html

[12] Nazi group BNP strip scum bag Nick Griffin of his honoury presidential role and strip him of his BNP membership: http://www.bnp.org.uk/news/national/nick-griffin-expelled-bnp-membership

[13] 8th may 2015 Independent article: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/bnp-sees-997-drop-in-votes-party-all-but-wiped-out-10235624.html

[14] Wikipedia entry re GE2015: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_National_Party#General_elections

[15] I have no idea what this man takes, but he should stop. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/ex-bnp-leader-nick-griffin-tells-right-wing-conference-russia-will-save-europe-10128994.html

[16] March 22, 2010 Band Sell 'Nick Griffin Is A Wanker' T-Shirt To Fund Anti-BNP Single

 http://lancasteruaf.blogspot.co.uk/2010/03/band-sell-nick-griffin-is-wanker-t.html

and

http://www.gigwise.com/news/55411/Band-Sell-'Nick-Griffin-Is-A-W*nker'-T-Shirt-To-Fund-Anti-BNP-Single

[18]  You can see it on this website, it is video 1: http://www.kalvinchapman.co.uk/video-4-labour---bnp.html

or go have a look at the Fork In Politics YouTube channel for all my videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBNaTO-f1jQvxYAE-ty5qUQ

[19] 22 March 2015 Mirror Article "UKIP leader Nigel Farage brands protesters 'scum' after his children forced to flee pub"

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-brands-5381350

[20] Article about it on BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22559526

Articles about Crema and his Labour Party activities: https://www.facebook.com/Max-Crema-for-Chair-of-Edinburgh-University-Labour-Club-168891103266477/info/?tab=page_info

His articles in the Scottish Politics website: http://scotspolitics.com/maxcrema

[21] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-exploiting-rotherham-grooming-scandal-to-secure-party-s-first-police-chief-9819768.html

[22] http://www.southwales-eveningpost.co.uk/Union-plans-protest-Ukip-leader-Nigel-Farage/story-28020058-detail/story.html

[23] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3067268/Jim-Murphy-Eddie-Izzard-forced-flee-Labour-rally-Glasgow-angry-nationalists-spark-violent-scrum.html

[24] Independent article on the stab in the back for David Milliband: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-are-the-tories-getting-desperate-ed-miliband-stabbed-his-brother-in-the-back-10164087.html

[25] An obituary from the year 2025 for a Labour party that abandoned its roots http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/obituary-labour-party-roots-2025

[26]  Prescott telling D Milliband to shut up:http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/john-prescott-tells-david-miliband-5865998

[27]  Wikipedia again:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015#Results

[28]Third biggest party but still Nigel Farage quits: Ukip leader resigns after failing to win seat... but admits he could still stand again in leadership election http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3074236/Third-biggest-party-Farage-quits-Ukip-leader-resigns-failing-win-seat-admits-stand-leadership-election.html

[29]  See for instance the disgusting things said by UKIP Parliamentary candidate Robert Blay:http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/robert-blay-ukip-suspends-parliamentary-5641537

[30]  See this one for example:http://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/12931283.War_of_words_erupts_after_Labour_candidate_blasts__racist__UKIP_party/

[31] See their website for this: http://www.labour.org.uk/issues/detail/immigration or a review of their manifesto: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11532277/manifesto-2015-summary.html

[32] 06/06/2015 Independent article "Ukip voters are either racist or desperate, says Labour leadership candidate" http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-voters-are-either-racist-or-desperate-says-labour-leadership-candidate-10307321.html

[33] 26th September 2015 Pink news announcing the candidacy of Peter Whittle "UKIP picks gay candidate Peter Whittle to run for Mayor of London" http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2015/09/26/ukip-picks-gay-candidate-peter-whittle-to-run-for-mayor-of-london/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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