Fork In Politics

Stoke Central By-Election

UKIP's Paul Nuttall v Labour's Gareth Snell

 

On 23 February 2017 there will be a by-election in Stoke Central.  The first video is the full length episode about the candidates from Labour & UKIP.  The second video is a shorter (8 minute) video just looking at the Labour Candidate.  He is so deplorable, it is worth just watching that one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is the shorter 8 minute video on just Gareth Snell, the Labour Candidate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An MP resigning has an unusual manner of being implemented.  This is what the website for Parliament says[1]:

 

"23 January 2017

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has appointed Tristram Hunt to the office of Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern. The appointment is one of the ways in which a Member of Parliament can resign from the House of Commons.

 

Tristram Hunt's resignation triggers a by-election in the constituency of Stoke-on-Trent Central on 23 November 2017.

 

How an MP vacates their seat

 

A resolution passed by the House of Commons on 2 March 1624 prohibits MPs directly from resigning their seats.

 

Death, disqualification and expulsion are the only means by which a Member’s seat may be vacated during the lifetime of a Parliament.

 

An MP who wishes to resign has to go through the process of accepting an office of the Crown, which automatically disqualifies the MP from holding a seat in the House of Commons.

 

If an MP indicates that they wish to resign, the Chancellor of the Exchequer grants either the Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chilterns Hundreds or Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead by means of a written warrant, in the presence of a witness. These posts are unpaid.

 

The Member retains the position until the Chancellor appoints another applicant or until the holder applies for release from it. Every new warrant issued revokes the previous holder. It is usual to grant the offices alternately, as this enables two Members to retire at the same time."

 

So, he resigned on 13 January 2017.  This was allowed despite the 1624 resolution[2].  The Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 made provision to increase the length of Parliamentary election timetables, both for general and by-elections[3]. This provision was brought into force on 6 April 2014 by article 3 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 (Commencement No. 5 and Transitory Provisions) Order 2014[4].

 

The party of the resigning MP then move the writ in Parliament, which is the means of formally starting the timetable for a by-election[3]. Labour did so on 23 January 2017[5].

 

"[Mr Speaker in the Chair]

BUSINESS BEFORE QUESTIONS

New Writs

Ordered,

That Mr Speaker do issue his Warrant to the Clerk of the Crown to make out a New Writ for the electing of a Member to serve in this present Parliament for the County Constituency of Copeland in the room of Jamieson Ronald Reed, who since his election for the said County Constituency has been appointed to the Office of Steward and Bailiff of Her Majesty’s Manor of Northstead in the County of York.—(Mr Nicholas Brown.)

Ordered,

That Mr Speaker do issue his Warrant to the Clerk of the Crown to make out a New Writ for the electing of a Member to serve in this present Parliament for the Borough Constituency of Stoke-on-Trent Central in the room of Tristram Julian William Hunt, who since his election for the said Borough Constituency has been appointed to the Office of Steward and Bailiff of Her Majesty’s Three Chiltern Hundreds of Stoke, Desborough and Burnham in the County of Buckingham.—(Mr Nicholas Brown.)"

 

Tristram Hunt gave his final speech to the house on 18 January 2017[6].  In his speech, he said the following[6]:

 

"The challenge that my right hon. Friend the leader of the Labour party faces is not unique to him. All parties are coalitions, but what Brexit has done is exacerbate the divergence of priorities between, say, the Labour voters of Cambridge and those in Redcar, Grimsby or Stoke--on-Trent. Keeping a metropolitan and post-industrial coalition together is no easy task.

 

In Stoke-on-Trent, my voters wanted to leave the European Union for three reasons: sovereignty and a return of national powers to this Parliament; a reaction against globalisation and a political economy that they thought had shut down the mines and steel industry and eliminated 80% of jobs in the potteries; and immigration. The concern about immigration was not racism. It was about the effects of large-scale migration on public services and wage levels in an already low-wage city."

 

So, the by-election is called.  This is what the 2015 General Election looked like[7]:

 

 

 And this is the list of people that as at 28 January 2017 have put their name forward[7]:

 

 

 I will (obviously) discuss UKIP & Its Leader, Paul Nuttall, in a moment.

 

The Labour Party know that both the Stoke Central constituency and the Copeland constituency are of paramount importance.  The leader of Labour was selected (again) in a massive mandate.  Does that massive and indisputable mandate correlate with what the real people of the North think of the London centric Labour Party?

 

Labour selected a chap called Gareth Snell to stand[8].  This is him[9]

 

 

So we have Jeremy Corbyn managing, somehow, to get out of North London and not get lost. He visited Mr Snell to boost the election.  The problem is, Gareth Snell loathes & despises Jeremy Corbyn.  Aside from his views on Brexit (which I will discuss in a moment) Gareth Snell appears no different than your average UKIP or Tory supporter in view of his absolute distaste for Labour & its leaders.

 

What is worse is that he also hates Twilight.  How can anyone hate Twilight - or the entire world for that matter?

 

 

 His views are hardly what one would expect as representing the absolute best that Labour could dig up to represent them in an astonishingly important election.  But his views on the Labour leadership are just breath-taking.  I cannot even read them all out, so I will just post them here behind me.

 

He loathes & despises Jeremy Corbyn.

 

 

 

This is how he describes the leader of his party:

 

 

 This is his view of Corbyn being leader:

 

His views on John McDonnell the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, are just as polite:

 

 

 His views also go as far as everyone's favourite baddy, Diane Abbott:

 

 

And, given how important the Greater Manchester Mayoral race is, this is how he views Labour's pick of the bunch, Andy Burnham:

 

 

 He absolutely hates them all.

 

 

 And this was the best that Labour could come up with.

 

UKIP selected the new party leader Paul Nuttall[10].  You can see the full speech by Paul on Fork in Politics[11].  In 2015 UKIP did amazingly well and under the Stoke UKIP branch chair, Mick Harold, who stood aside to let Paul be selected unopposed.  Mick's hard work in 2015 really has laid out a fantastic trail for UKIP to follow in the 2017 by-election on 23 February 2017.

 

The first thing Labour did when Paul was announced was to say that he wants to privatise the NHS[12].  As usual, this is complete and utter rubbish and lies.  What is worse is that they came out with this rubbish despite the fact that in his speech announcing his candidacy he very clearly states that he was wrong in 2011 to say that the NHS should be opened up to competition (he never, ever, said that he wants it privatised, just opened up to competition)[13].  He then went onto Peston on Sunday and said the exact same thing, again, yet Labour are still putting out rubbish - along with Hate not Soap - saying he wants to privatise the NHS[14].  Why? Because they cannot fight UKIP on policy.

 

 

So the by-election will centre on two things.  NHS and Brexit.  Stoke, the City, voted to Leave The EU by 69.4% on a turnout of 65.7% (117,590).  81,563 voted leave and 36,027 voted Remain.  That is a massive mandate for the next MP.  This was one of the highest vote shares in the country.  So, who does Labour pick?  They pick a guy who is vehemently anti-Brexit.

 

 

The rest of his tweets are pretty much along the same lines.

 

So, Labour has selected a guy that hates Labour and the Labour leadership, hates Brexit, hates Twilight and appears to have nothing positive to say.  And he is the best they have.

 

What we also know is that the Conservatives are not putting any money or fight into this contest, but are instead going to put all of their fight & money into the Copeland by-election (being held on the same day)[15].  The tories came third in 2015 with 22.5% of the vote, with UKIP coming second with 22.7.  Labour got 39.3% giving them a majority of just 5,179.  In Copeland the tories came second with 35.8% of the vote, with Labour on 42.3% and a majority of just 2,564.  UKIP came third with 15.5% (massive well done to Michael Pye)[16].  One of my absolute favourite people in UKIP is contesting the seat, Fiona Mills, who was recently selected for the NEC[17].  I really hope she does well, because UKIP is putting everything into Stoke, so Fiona has an up-hill battle, but I really, really want to see her do well and put Labour into Third place.

 

So what do I predict?

 

I put £20 on Paul winning the Stoke by-election.  Paul wass at one point the odds on favourite to win.  This is what Betfair said[18]:

 

"With UKIP's new leader Paul Nuttall specifically targeting disaffected working class in the area, the party have been backed heavily and are now trading at 2.12 - from a high of 4.90 - and even had a brief spell in the favourite spot overnight."

 

Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn's leadership will be the central issues in this by-election.  Given that the Labour Candidate is vehemently anti-Brexit and Stoke is vehemently pro Brexit plus he hates the Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn, Paul Nuttall has a very real chance of winning.

 

UKIP needs you out helping in the by-elections in Stoke and Copeland.  Obviously UKIP would prefer you go and help leaflet and knock on doors in Stoke, but if it is easier to go to Copeland they would very much encourage you to get out and help.  These will be bruising fights and I really look forward to reporting on Labour getting trounced in the polls and at the hustings.

 

Kalvin P Chapman

28/01/2017.

 

 

 

Resources

 

[1]  Parliament website 23 January 2017

 

https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2017/january/tristram-hunt-resigns-as-mp-for-stoke-on-trent-central/

 

[2] House of Commons Briefing Paper SN/PC/06395 18 July 2013 "Resignation from the House of Commons: House of Commons Background Paper"

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06395/SN06395.pdf

 

[3] House of Commons briefing on by-election timetables, briefing paper Number 06609 November 2015, 23

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06609/SN06609.pdf

 

[4] Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 (Commencement No. 5 and Transitory Provisions) Order 2014

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2014/414/made

 

[5] Hansard 23 January 2017 at volume 620 Prayers

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2017-01-23/debates/0DD72243-97BE-4C90-B54D-60F1417551AF/Prayers

 

[6] Hansard 18 January 2017 column 992.

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2017-01-18/debates/D3BD1E6E-0C8F-4294-BFCB-4A542A16BBB5/LeavingTheEUSecurityLawEnforcementAndCriminalJustice?highlight=stoke#contribution-1006CEBD-BA45-4564-98A8-DEF5EFB531FF

 

[7] Wikipedia 28 January 2017 Stoke-On-Central Constituency

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

 

[8] Stoke Sentinel 25 January2 016 "Labour Party chooses Gareth Snell as candidate for Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election"

http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/labour-party-chooses-gareth-snell-as-candidate-for-stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/story-30087428-detail/story.html

 

[9] Twitter @Gareth_snell 28 January 2017

https://twitter.com/gareth_snell/status/825334274995929089

 

[10] Telegraph 21 January 2017 " Paul Nuttall attacks ‘metropolitan elite’ after being unveiled as Ukip’s candidate for Stoke-on-Trent by-election"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/21/paul-nuttall-attacks-metropolitan-elite-unveiled-ukips-candidate/

 

[11] Youtube, Fork In Politics 21 January 2017 "UKIP's Paul Nuttall announcing his candidacy of Stoke Central"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-k85MF1Ork

 

[12] Mirror 23 January 2017 "Does Ukip's Paul Nuttall want to privatise the NHS? Here's his position in his own words"

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/paul-nuttall-want-privatise-nhs-9676639

 

[13] Youtube For In Politics 21 January 2017 "Paul Nuttall tackles Labour Lies: Does UKIP want to Privatise the NHS?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLIQPn5mnNY&t=2s

 

[14] Youtube Fork In Politics - Peston on Sunday video "2017 01 22 Paul Nuttall sets out his view on the NHS & How to fund it"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_quPhYj4BM&t=1s

 

[15] Huffington post 23 January 2017 " Tories Write Off Stoke-on-Trent Central By-Election, Party Sources Say"

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tories-write-off-stoke-by-election-as-they-fear-awkward-defeat-party-sources-say_uk_588108f5e4b0b8867de7372b

 

[16] Wikipedia Copeland

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copeland_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

 

[17] ITV News 20 January 2017 " UKIP announces local NHS worker as by-election candidate"

http://www.itv.com/news/border/2017-01-20/ukip-announces-local-nhs-worker-as-by-election-candidate/

 

[18]  Betfair 25 January 2017 " Stoke By-Election: UKIP set for upset as Nuttall attracts punters' cash"

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/uk-politics/stoke-by-election-odds-latest-betting-ukip-paul-nuttall-backed-in-to-even-money-250117-205.html

 

 

 

 

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